The situation in the international road transportation market is unlikely to improve significantly by the end of the year, said Oleg Germanovich, Director of the transport and logistical company AsstrA Belorussia in his interview with “Ezhenedelnik”.

Nevertheless, Asstra Belorussia expects a 10-12% goods flow increase next year, although company representatives do not dare specify when exactly this increase will start.

As estimated by the forwarders, this year the volume of goods traffic through the territory of Belarus has decreased by 40% as compared with the pre-crisis period. In order to stay on the market, many companies had to start working at rates equal to the net cost. That is, the prospect for the road forwarders is not so bright so far, especially considering that, according to O. Germanovich,  the neighboring states, specifically Russia, implement a more consistent and aggressive policy with regard to transport transit, to put it simply, a protectionist policy. A conspicuous example of it was demonstrated this August, when the Russian customs agreed to cancel severe control of Lithuanian forwarders provided that the activities of 29 Lithuanian enterprises delivering consignments to Russia and constantly accused of violations would be limited.  

However, as noted by the Director of Asstra Belorussia, there are no guarantees that sanctions imposed on Lithuanian forwarders cannot be potentially imposed on Belarusian forwarders as well, especially considering that Belarusian enterprises carrying out consignment transit have virtually no advantages as compared to the foreign ones.  

“Belarusian forwarders have no preferences outside the country. There are no perspective interstate agreements making it possible to enter the Russian market. We are limited by quotas. As a result, the consignment transportation business flows over to Russia. At present, practically all Belarusian forwarders have sites, i.e., their enterprises in the Russian Federation”, Oleg Germanovich emphasizes. 
In his opinion, even the single customs space discussed at the moment within the Custioms Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan with cancelled control at the inner borders of the member states does no inspire any optimism.

“Logically, consignment traffic within the Customs Union should become easier. If the experience of the European Union is adopted, things will be fine. However, right now, while customs border lifting is being talked about, it is absolutely unclear what will happen to the NRP (notification receipt points). If they are cancelled, consignments coming from the outside will be formally “dissolved” on the Belarusian territory. Our country will generate a double annual GDP, from the point of view of statistics. If NRP are kept, what would be the difference from the existing model?” O.Germanovich asks himself.

From his point of view, it would make sense to perform customs directly on the outer borders of the Union, but it is too early to estimate how realistic and technically feasible that is.

Oleg Germanovich believes that right now it is better to concentrate on urgent problems.  The reality is so that an excess of forwarders can be observed on the internal Belarusian market.
“In this case, the essence of the development prospect is occupying the places of the companies that give up earlier. Yet, Belarusian forwarders will exist and operate while sinking to the bottom of the crisis and afterwards. Only the strongest will survive!” Oleg Germanovich shared his opinion.

Information Source: “Ezhednevnik”, Andrey Alexandrovich